From the National Journal:
Think Aaron Schock’s alleged spending problems will cause him real political problems back home? Think again.
Despite a string of allegations related to lavish spending and possible misuse of funds, the Illinois Republican looks likely to avoid a primary challenge thanks to a wall of support he has steadily built among local politicians by spreading around campaign cash.
Indeed, in his central Illinois district, where the GOP primary is the only election that matters, there’s little chatter about anyone looking to run against him.
“In the 18th District, his name is still golden,” said Katherine Coyle, chair of the Peoria County Republican Party. “We have candidates running for school board who still want his input.”
This article is bullcrap is so many ways.
The 18th District, yes, has voted Republican. But there are a HUGE number of other races within the 18th District that sway Democratic — the 92nd state house for one, the 46th state senate district for another. Throughout the 18th District, the Democratic Party is a large minority.
In 1982, Bob Michel came very, very close to getting beat by Democratic challenger Doug Stephens, and Michel didn’t have anywhere near the number of scandals around his neck as Schock. Michel was just stuck with defending the lousy Reagan economy.
The fact is: When the Democrat field a decent challenger to the Republican nominee, the results are kinda close. Democrats can and do win elections here. Ever hear of Bill Shadid, former sheriff, former state rep and former state senator? If Bill Shadid were to ever run against Aaron Schock, Schock just might as well retire.
Schock loves to spread the myth of his unbeatability. And the media loves to spread that myth, too. The public — consumers of this myth — will stay home.
Well, when a candidate gets hit, again and again by these scandals like Schock is, the loyal followers who normally turn out on election day tend to not show up … REGARDLESS of what the media says. And people backing the opponent? It tends to get fired up and go to the polls … REGARDLESS of what the media says.
There’s a reason we actually hold elections, REGARDLESS of what the media says.
The odds are 50-50 Schock gets relelected. Those dollar bill Shock has in his campaign chest — or in shoeboxes under his bed, for all I know — are not themselves actual votes. They are just a way for Schock to pay to have his message delivered, again and again. And if that message is drummed out by news of scandal after scandal, look for Lil Aaron to be looking for a new job